31.5.19 (Abridged). I am emailing as we were discussing the drivers of farm scale afforestation currently and I know some of the assumptions were that this was being driven by speculation. Following our meeting there was an ‘Understanding Carbon’ workshop down the road at the Wairoa Golf club and a number of presenters spoke on what the opportunities for landowners could be. These were very compelling and illustrated very well that the current market (rather than speculative behaviour) is fueling the majority of whole farm conversions.
Currently speculating on a carbon price increase simply exists as a happy bonus, the current environment is sufficient to make forestry purchasing power significantly greater than drystock farming purchasing power, particularly when drystock purchases are typically funded with debt and forestry purchases funded with equity capital.
I did a back of the envelope calculation on what the potential returns were for me if I planted 100ha of my farm. The result after 25 years was over $3 million in favour of forestry. I would benefit greatly to plant my whole farm. Our staff, and our local school and merchandisers, stock agents, processing plants etc would not.
If you were to ask me for a solution, I don’t have one that can still include the ETS as it functions currently, the market for credits is just far too large (all of industry) for farming to withstand this sort of pressure. But I can say with some confidence that every extra dollar the carbon price lifts, will exacerbate this trend.
Thank you for taking the time to engage with us. I know that blanket afforestation is not your intention, but we need minds like yours understanding the market we live in and the one being creating, intentionally or not.
Kerry Worsnop
Sorry, no, not my expertise!
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Yes, good journalism from Alex.
This was the article which I referred to …
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-06-2019/climate-change-and-the-rural-way-of-life/
Dear 50 shades of Green,
I was quite saddened to see the article about Taumaranui, especially the school boarded up. I haven’t been up to Taumaranui since 1960, on the overnight Wellington to Auckland express. Thriving farming community back then. This demise is all so unnecessary and illustrates the results of the total madness in the belief (religion) of the so called “climate change” . It’s all a load of bollocks. It’s the biggest scientific hoax, mistake, scam, in human history. Start here..
https://thestandard.org.nz/farrar-peddles-climate-change-denial-nonsense/#comment-1520473 Further down in that thread, this comment clarifies the LACK of any “greenhouse effect” in Earth’s atmosphere… https://thestandard.org.nz/farrar-peddles-climate-change-denial-nonsense/#comment-1521081
And in this thread, discover that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, actually has a very slight COOLING effect…
https://thestandard.org.nz/we-need-to-push-back-on-leighton-smith/#comment-1523235
Following out my links provides interesting reading to keep you going for days… but this comment of mine needs not to be overlooked… http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/05/time-for-the-slayers-to-put-up-or-shut-up/#comment-78670
Hoping that somebody in govt will come to their senses. Very much doubt it , though,
Best wishes,
Mack.
Sky Dragon Slayer’s Chief Public Relations Officer